{"id":3714,"date":"2025-06-25T09:07:41","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T07:07:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/parisfenetres.com\/sondage-municipales-2026-paris\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T09:07:41","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T07:07:41","slug":"sondage-municipales-2026-paris","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/parisfenetres.com\/blog\/sondage-municipales-2026-paris\/","title":{"rendered":"Municipales 2026 \u00e0 Paris : un sondage qui inqui\u00e8te les socialistes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alors que les \u00e9lections municipales de 2026 \u00e0 Paris approchent, un r\u00e9cent sondage publi\u00e9 par La Tribune et BFMTV r\u00e9v\u00e8le une situation pr\u00e9occupante pour les socialistes, traditionnellement solides dans la capitale. Leurs candidats \u00e0 la succession d\u2019Anne Hidalgo peinent \u00e0 convaincre, tandis que Rachida Dati, figure forte de la droite, semble s\u2019imposer rapidement comme la favorite. Cette dynamique bouscule l\u2019\u00e9chiquier politique parisien et soul\u00e8ve de nombreuses interrogations sur les alliances et strat\u00e9gies \u00e0 venir. La comp\u00e9tition s\u2019annonce intense entre les diverses composantes de la gauche, \u00e0 un moment o\u00f9 les enjeux locaux, li\u00e9s notamment au logement et \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9, mobilisent fortement les Parisiens.<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Un sondage qui fragilise la position des socialistes dans les municipales de Paris 2026<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le sondage r\u00e9alis\u00e9 par l\u2019institut Elabe pour La Tribune Dimanche et BFMTV accro\u00eet l&rsquo;<strong>inqui\u00e9tude des socialistes<\/strong> \u00e0 Paris. Les deux principaux candidats pressentis, Emmanuel Gr\u00e9goire et R\u00e9mi F\u00e9raud, sont cr\u00e9dit\u00e9s de seulement <strong>14 \u00e0 19 % d\u2019intentions de vote<\/strong> au premier tour, loin derri\u00e8re la ministre de la Culture Rachida Dati, qui atteint parfois <strong>34 %<\/strong>. Ce d\u00e9calage marque une rupture avec la domination socialiste parisienne, qui s&rsquo;\u00e9tend sur plus de deux d\u00e9cennies. Si le total des forces de gauche d\u00e9passe encore les 50 %, le PS n\u2019en tire plus profit majoritairement, avec un vote qui tend \u00e0 se fragmenter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les \u00e9cologistes et les Insoumis en embuscade<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les candidatures \u00e9cologistes et insoumises occupent d\u00e9sormais une place majeure dans la course \u00e0 la mairie de Paris. David Belliard, candidat des Verts, obtient jusqu\u2019\u00e0 22 % selon les hypoth\u00e8ses, ce qui le place devant R\u00e9mi F\u00e9raud dans la plupart des sc\u00e9narios. Cette mont\u00e9e prend de court les socialistes, d\u2019autant que Sophia Chikirou, d\u00e9put\u00e9e LFI contest\u00e9e mais active, double parfois F\u00e9raud en intentions de vote, atteignant environ 15 %. Ce regroupement d\u2019aspirants \u00e0 gauche, tous proches en pourcentages, complique la constitution d\u2019une candidature unifi\u00e9e et dilue la force du Parti socialiste.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"is-provider-youtube is-type-video wp-block-embed wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Eric Coquerel, d\u00e9put\u00e9 LFI de Seine-Saint-Denis | LCP, Lundi C&#039;est Politique - 23\/06\/2025\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/vIX_onYi0cs?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rachida Dati favorite \u00e0 Paris malgr\u00e9 une droite fragment\u00e9e<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec <strong>plus d\u2019un tiers des intentions de vote<\/strong>, Rachida Dati semble prendre une avance confortable, confirmant sa stature de favorite. Ex-ministre, elle sait capitaliser sur une image solide, comme le souligne par exemple <a href=\"https:\/\/www.20minutes.fr\/paris\/4083443-20240326-municipales-2026-sondage-place-deja-rachida-dati-tete-paris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">20 Minutes<\/a>. Cependant, le positionnement de Pierre-Yves Bournazel, candidat Horizons en retrait \u00e0 environ 8 %, illustre les divisions au sein de la droite et du centre. Cette fragmentation pourrait toutefois b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier \u00e0 Dati, qui reste la principale figure d\u2019opposition \u00e0 la majorit\u00e9 sortante.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans ce contexte mouvant, des probl\u00e9matiques parisiennes comme le <a href=\"https:\/\/parisfenetres.com\/migrants-logement-paris-11\/\" target=\"_blank\">logement des migrants<\/a> ou la question de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 via l\u2019installation de <a href=\"https:\/\/parisfenetres.com\/cameras-surveillance-15e-arrondissement\/\" target=\"_blank\">cam\u00e9ras de surveillance<\/a> renforcent le d\u00e9bat politique, rendant les municipales d\u2019autant plus strat\u00e9giques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Un scrutin \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9quilibre pr\u00e9caire \u00e0 gauche<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le triple enjeu entre socialistes, \u00e9cologistes et Insoumis pose la question des alliances et des candidatures communes pour \u00e9viter un \u00e9miettement pr\u00e9judiciable. Ce d\u00e9fi est amplifi\u00e9 par le fait que la troisi\u00e8me candidate socialiste potentielle, Marion Waller, n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 test\u00e9e dans ce sondage, et que le PS doit trancher ses candidatures d\u2019ici le 30 juin. L\u2019incertitude p\u00e8se \u00e9galement sur la strat\u00e9gie du Parti socialiste pour rattraper le retard, notamment celui de R\u00e9mi F\u00e9raud face \u00e0 Emmanuel Gr\u00e9goire en termes de notori\u00e9t\u00e9 et de soutien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L\u2019extr\u00eame droite \u00e0 la marge lors des prochaines \u00e9lections parisiennes<\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le dernier enseignement notable de ce sondage est la faiblesse persistante de l\u2019extr\u00eame droite dans la capitale. Le Rassemblement national plafonne sous la barre des 10 %, tandis que Reconqu\u00eate !, avec Sarah Knafo en t\u00eate de liste, atteint autour de 5 %. Cette faiblesse indique que les enjeux municipaux parisiens restent largement domin\u00e9s par le clivage entre la droite classique et la gauche plurielle, malgr\u00e9 la pr\u00e9sence de ces formations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Au fil des semaines \u00e0 venir, la recomposition des candidatures et les arbitrages au sein du PS seront d\u00e9terminants pour la coh\u00e9rence de la gauche \u00e0 Paris. Le contexte \u00e9conomique, social et politique, avec des d\u00e9fis tels que la <a href=\"https:\/\/parisfenetres.com\/dette-paris-subventions-mairie\/\" target=\"_blank\">gestion de la dette de la ville<\/a> ou encore les <a href=\"https:\/\/parisfenetres.com\/subventions-associations-paris\/\" target=\"_blank\">subventions aux associations<\/a>, sont autant de th\u00e9matiques qui ne manqueront pas d\u2019influencer les d\u00e9bats \u00e9lectoraux \u00e0 venir.<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alors que les \u00e9lections municipales de 2026 \u00e0 Paris approchent, un r\u00e9cent sondage publi\u00e9 par La Tribune et BFMTV r\u00e9v\u00e8le [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[928],"tags":[2089,84,1691,2093,2091],"class_list":["post-3714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualite","tag-municipales-2026","tag-paris","tag-politique","tag-socialistes","tag-sondage"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/parisfenetres.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3714","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/parisfenetres.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/parisfenetres.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/parisfenetres.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/parisfenetres.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3714"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/parisfenetres.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3714\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/parisfenetres.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3714"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/parisfenetres.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3714"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/parisfenetres.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3714"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}